Blog Entry

How the NHL's top scorers have been used

Posted on: January 24, 2012 4:26 pm
Edited on: January 25, 2012 10:26 am
The Kings are relying on Anze Kopitar to do it all. (Getty Images)
Pucks and Numbers: a weekly statistical look at what's happening around the NHL. This week: A look at how the NHL's have top scorers have been used this season.

By: Adam Gretz

Of all the top scorers in the league this season the most overlooked and underappreciated one of them all might be Anze Kopitar of the Los Angeles Kings.

Not only because he's their leading scorer (and one of the only players on the team that's actually having a good season offensively) but also because they are asking him to play in every possible situation against the best players on a nightly basis.

More often than not in recent years the player that finishes the regular season as the NHL's leading scorer also tends to take home the Hart Trophy as the league MVP, as has happened in six of the past 10 years. In two of the four years it didn't happen, the Hart went to the player that scored the most goals. That kind of gives you an idea as to what voters are looking at, at least in part -- total production, whether it be goals and/or total points.

Of course, there is a ton of value in a player that scores enough to lead the league in any or both of those categories, and that player is obviously going to be one of the best players in the league. That is, after all, the most basic concept of the game: score goals.

But not all scorers play in situations that are created equal. Some players are put into situations where they can focus entirely on offense (like, say, Henrik and Daniel Sedin).

Others are given assignments that aren't quite as conducive to putting up points because of what might be greater defensive responsibilities, whether it be playing more minutes as a penalty killer, where offensive is nearly impossible to come by, or simply playing more even strength shifts in areas where defense has to take a priority over offense (such as a faceoff in the defensive zone).

Last week we looked at the top rookies that have been given the toughest assignments this season, and this week we're going to take a similar look at how the top-25 scorers in the league (at the start of this week) have been utilized by their teams. The chart below takes into account all five-on-five situations and locates players based on the quality of competition they face, as well as the percentage of their shifts that start in the offensive zone (both numbers via BehindTheNet).

The closer a player is to the top left, the harder the assignments. The closer to the bottom right, the "easier."

This, again, is the top-25 scorers in the NHL at the start of this week.


1) See those two guys way out on the right, all by themselves? Those are the Sedin twins, and it's easy to see what their role is for the Canucks. Along with their regular linemate, Alex Burrows, the Sedin's start a higher percentage of their shifts in the offensive zone than any player in the league (not just among the top scorers, but all players) and there really isn't anybody else that is even remotely close to them.

After Burrows, who again is their linemate, the only other regular player in the NHL that has a mark over 70 percent is Tampa Bay's well known defensive sieve, Marc-Andre Bergeron. And these guys are bordering on the 80 percent mark. This is not a new development for the Canucks, as head coach Alain Vigneault has pretty much always used his players this way, whether it be making sure that the Sedin's are always playing in the offensive zone, or players like Manny Malhotra are always on the ice for defensive zone draws.

Obviously, the Canucks are not the only team that operates this way and puts certain players in certain spots, as most of the top-scorers shown above are used in similar situations (favorable five-on-five roles, a lot of power play time, almost no time on the penalty kill). Though, the Canucks do seem to be the most committed to it, and as I mentioned in this week's Power Rankings, if it weren't for icing calls that forced them to stay on the ice for a faceoff in their own zone, I wonder if the Sedin's would ever be asked to start a shift in their own end of the ice.

2) The MVP campaign for Philadelphia's Claude Giroux is no joke, and if there were any doubts about his ability to take over the No. 1 center role in Philadelphia and play the tough minutes that Mike Richards previously played, well, you can forget about it. He's not only playing the key even strength minutes, he also spends two-and-a-half minutes per game on the penalty kill. And he's still the second leading scorer in the NHL, even with the fact that he's missed four games.

Detroit's Pavel Datsyuk is having a similar season, but we already knew he's capable of that and he's simply continuing to do what he's always done throughout his career -- play unmatched two-way hockey and dazzle with his obscene level of skill.

3) Where would the Kings and Devils be without Kopitar and Patrik Elias this season? Not only are they the top point producers for two teams that have little offense after them, but they have also been doing it under less-than-ideal circumstances for offense, while both spend significant time every night killing penalties for two of the top penalty killing teams in the league. Kopitar, for example, logs 2:28 of shorthanded ice time per game for the Kings, while Elias checks in at just under two minutes per game. Of the 25 players on the scatterplot above, only nine of them play more than one minute of shorthanded ice-time per game. Twelve of them play less than 10 seconds per game.

Does this mean that players like Kopitar and Elias are better than players like the Sedins, or Evgeni Malkin and James Neal? Or having better seasons? Well, no, not exactly, because those guys are still scoring at pretty impressive rates and being relied on to carry their teams offensively. In the cases of Malkin and Neal, for example, they're pretty much the only guys scoring for their team right now, so that can't be underestimated.

It does, however, mean that perhaps the gap isn't quite as big as the point total or goal total would indicate.

It means that a player like Kopitar, who never seems to get much attention as being one of the best players in the league (he's not even an All-Star this season, for whatever that's worth) is probably extremely underrated and underappreciated for what he has done for his team every single night this season, and the way he's gone about doing it.

For more hockey news, rumors and analysis, follow @EyeOnHockey and @agretz on Twitter.

Since: Nov 27, 2008
Posted on: January 27, 2012 5:13 pm

How the NHL's top scorers have been used

I am always excited to see Anze getting the respect he deserves. However, I'm not sure the correlation between quality of competition and offensive zone starts determines a significant relationship of a player's all-around (balanced offensive & defensive output) value to his team. While Anze Kopitar, Claude Giroux, and Scott Hartnell deserve to be where they are, players like Loui Eriksson and Marian Hossa need to be signficantly shifted to the right as these guys are primarily. Loui lacks a two-way game, especially when compared to Mike Modano's situation in the mid-90s when he was forced out of necessity to adopt a two-way game and mastered it leading into the Stars Stanley Cup season. The Stars lack that from some of their largest producers of offense, Eriksson and Mike Ribeiro namely, and in past years have relied heavily on defensive forwards like Jere Lehtinen, Rob DiMaio and Brenden Morrow to bear most of that burden. With almost all of defensive forwards out of the system, and the defense never up to the task of playing defense (from Chris Therien to Matt Niskanen to Nicklas Grossman), any defense that appears to occur (when examining raw, empirical statistics) is a result of chance and circumstance and should not be credited to Loui.

I could of course, if someone can explain to me how this correlation is significant and does not omit variables, I may stand corrected.


Since: Jan 15, 2009
Posted on: January 27, 2012 4:53 pm

How the NHL's top scorers have been used

I love to see these kind of articles on CBS - well researched and a great way for casual fans to understand some of the nuances of the game and realize that hockey is a two-way game. Well done and keep up the good work!

Since: Sep 23, 2008
Posted on: January 25, 2012 12:54 pm

How the NHL's top scorers have been used

Awesome article, really well written and interesting.

Since: Jul 1, 2010
Posted on: January 25, 2012 9:04 am

How the NHL's top scorers have been used

It's nice to see so much more statistical analysis in hockey.   Interesting stuff here.  

A team's system has to be considered to an extent too when considering zone starts.  Some teams are more likely to finish in the offensive zone than others.   

I liked the graph with the rookies.    I hope we see more of this kind of analysis from Gretz.  Good stuff.

Great site to use to compare situational information about players, including who their top linemates are.

Since: Feb 16, 2007
Posted on: January 24, 2012 10:23 pm

How the NHL's top scorers have been used

Good insight, interesting article. Thanks Gretz!

Since: Oct 8, 2011
Posted on: January 24, 2012 7:28 pm

How the NHL's top scorers have been used

I wasn't expecting to see Scott Hartnell in the top 25 in scoring and starting a majority of his hifts defensively this year. He still bothers people but doesn't throw his glove and take as many bad penalties this year. Flyers used to have Carcillo, Hartnell and Danny Briere taking tons of bad penalties. That's a big improvement this year. Pretty much the Datsyuk graphic. What would he score if he wasn't a defensive forward with tons of skill? If he was all offense he would probably lead the league. In deference to Malkin and Crosby they play the best defense by having the puck in the offensive zone all game carrying the play.

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